Copenhagen: ‘A deal without agriculture, is no deal’

The economic cost of climate change in Africa
PACJA, 30 November 2009

Introduction: Climate change is already hitting Africa hard, not least economically. Any global deal on climate change must therefore reflect the region's interests.  The Pan African Climate Justice Alliance (PACJA), with support from Christian Aid, commissioned Practical Action Consulting to write this report in September 2009. It aims to document and analyse the economic costs of climate change in Africa. It also seeks to contribute to a more detailed understanding of the costs involved for Africa in mitigating and adapting to climate change.

Developed countries have so far committed to cutting emissions by, on average, 15 per cent by 2020. This could lead to global average temperature rises of 4°C or higher above pre-industrial levels by 2060. Without strategies in place for adapting to a change of this magnitude, Africa will be seriously affected - particularly its agricultural sector. This will inturn have serious implications for the continent's food production and malnutrition levels. Economic growth and development could be disrupted, ultimately giving rise to severe social and environmental problems.

Given adequate support to effective adaptation strategies in the form of predictable finance, capacity building and appropriate technologies Africa can minimise the costs of future climate change, particularly on behalf of those who are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

This report provides a conceptual framework and preliminary economic analysis aimed at policy makers and planners seeking to manage the effects of climate change. In particular, this report aims to support African countries in developing negotiating positions and structuring a fair, effective and development-oriented outcome at the Conference of the Parties 15 in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December 2009. It also provides evidence that could inform their requests for increased finance to support climate change adaptation and mitigation in Africa in the ongoing United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC) negotiations.

This report's key recommendations are as follows:

• Developed countries must immediately make significant cuts in emissions, and commit to cuts of at least 45 per cent by 2020 and 85-95 per cent by 2050 (relative to 1990 levels). Current commitments do not go far enough.
• The potential cost to Africa of adapting to climate change will reach at least US$10 billion – but will more likely be in the region of US$30 billion – every year by 2030. Adaptation funding is not a question of aid: it is an international obligation to compensate developing countries for causing damage to their environment, economies and societies. Developed countries therefore have a responsibility to provide the required adaptation funding immediately through structured financial mechanisms. This finance should be additional to Overseas Development Assistance (ODA).
• Current mitigation spending through the carbon market does not provide the capital Africa needs to develop in a low-carbon, sustainable way. Africa needs between US$510 and US$675 billion between 2010 and 2030 for low-carbon future growth. Fundamental reforms of the existing climate finance architecture are therefore required to provide the continent with the required funding.

• The impacts of climate change in Africa;
• Options for adapting to climate changes;
• An assessment of the economic costs of climate change and adaptation;
• Mitigation scenarios; and
• Policy recommendations.